Economic-Social Systems Engineering
Abstract:
In this research, by studying, examining and applying the principles of game theory, a new hypothesis has been presented in the field of using game theory in the strategic planning of organizations in order to reduce the impact of environmental changes that have occurred over time on the formulated strategies of companies. In other words, it helps companies to consider the government as one of the players of this competitive game whose economic policies have a direct impact on the result obtained by them, during strategic planning, they can formulate more efficient strategies against the existing changes and uncertainties. Also, for a better understanding of the presented hypothesis, this hypothesis has been investigated in the current conditions of Iran's economy, i.e. changing the tariff of energy carriers. Since this change is proposed as a strategy used by one of the players of this game, the government, it will have a direct impact on the planning of the other player, the company, as well as his earnings from this game. The government offers its facilities to companies that have implemented systems to improve energy consumption. On the other hand, companies are also in favor of implementing or not implementing such systems in their place. The game created between the government and companies was defined and then by analyzing the created game with the help of game theory, various critical points were identified. For example, what is the level of facilities that the government should give to companies that implement systems that improve energy consumption to encourage them to do so? Chapter 1 Introduction and generalities of the research Introduction: In the strategic planning process in today's world, time and uncertainty play an important role. Unpredictable changes in the environment have grounded many industries or removed them from the competition scene and made predictions about the future fail. Organizations are unpredictably faced with new technologies, new products and new markets, and the developed strategies do not meet their needs in such a dynamic and variable environment.[1]
At the present time, the dizzying speed of changes has created a world of business where conventional management methods cannot be suitable for organizations in those environments. When the changes were minor, we could use experience, and experience alone was a good guide. But when the decisions are strategic and lead to irreversible results, you cannot use decisions based on intuitive judgments and experience (based on traditional management philosophies). It is certain that the future cannot be predicted. But the remarkable thing is that organizations can prepare themselves to deal with it and this preparation creates a competitive advantage for them. As the changes and uncertainties intensify, the competitive advantage of organizations that have formulated stable and resistant strategies against changes also increases. Successful organizations are those who can effectively adapt themselves to the phenomenon of change.
The basic principle of strategic management is that organizations should develop strategies to take advantage of external opportunities and avoid the effects of external threats or reduce them. Since the uncertainty in the environment has gradually become the focus of attention in the process of strategic planning, on the other hand, the thinkers of this field see the traditional methods proposed in strategic planning, which formulate strategies based on definite predictions of the future, ineffective in dealing with turbulence and changes in the environment, so these methods lose their effectiveness when faced with uncertain factors and environmental changes [1] .
This issue has caused the emergence and popularity of tools that give planners insight and power to face environmental changes. Tools such as stochastic planning, scenario planning, decision analysis and game theory are of this type.
2-1) Problem definition: As stated in the introduction, change is the only stable member in the current business environment and this represents the uncertainty in the business environment. Since planning is an essential element to achieve success in any situation, a tool such as game theory, which to some extent applies the effect of these changes in planning, plays a significant role in helping companies, organizations and institutions. On the other hand, examining the application of such broad and complex theories in terms of concepts, because it has received less attention from domestic researchers, is not an easy task and it is not possible to speak in general about its effectiveness. It has attracted the attention of international researchers, we decided to improve their explained executive plans by examining its application in the planning of companies in the stage of strategy formulation and selection. On the other hand, it has a direct impact on their earnings. As a result, by bringing the government into this game as one of the players, companies have been helped to somehow consider the role of environmental changes (government policies and programs) and make decisions based on its impact on their earnings. There is no need to explain that these decisions are more stable and efficient.
The application of the presented hypothesis for a better understanding, specifically in the current environment of Iran's economy, i.e. "targeting paid subsidies" to all sectors including industry, or in other words, changing the tariff of energy carriers and specifically paying facilities to industries by the government, has been examined, the equilibrium point of the game has been determined, and the results have also been stated.
3-1) The purpose of the research:
Our goal in this research is to present a proposal that, by using the capabilities of game theory, will allow the planners of organizations to apply the effect of changes caused by socio-economic policies in their strategic and executive organizational planning. The effort is to find the application of game theory in the planning process of organizations, by improving the performance of this process and completing it, we have taken an effective step towards choosing the most efficient strategy. Because as stated, facing uncertainty in the current world and dealing with it correctly is necessary for the survival of all organizations and companies that operate in a competitive environment, and there is a need to identify a suitable tool to deal with these possibilities. Necessity of doing research :
All human beings are in game conditions at any moment. Like the game of children with parents, person with friends, person with enemies, student with teacher, worker with employer, etc.
Perhaps it is in facing these daily interactions with others that every person intuitively and consciously learns experience and expertise in playing games. In game theory, skills are learned that help a person to improve his experience and expertise in his interaction with others, which is also referred to as a game. [5]
Nowadays, to be more successful in international relations and diplomacy, trade, war and peace, we have to learn the theory of games. In fact, wherever people, groups and societies interact and try to resolve conflicts, they are also forced to learn game theory. On the other hand, as stated before, in today's world, unpredictable changes in the environment have grounded many industries or removed them from the competition scene. [1] Planning is the basic principle of remaining in this scene and organizations will be able to successfully continue on their path if they can formulate and implement more effective strategies against changes.