Controlling scattered products in the retail market with the Monte Carlo method

Number of pages: 88 File Format: word File Code: 30907
Year: 2014 University Degree: Master's degree Category: Electronic Engineering
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  • Summary of Controlling scattered products in the retail market with the Monte Carlo method

    Master thesis

    Power trend

    Abstract

    Dispersed production control and their planning is one of the important issues of power systems operation. The purpose of this issue is to minimize the cost of operation and pollution and to supply cargo by observing the operation restrictions. The increase in the desire to use renewable resources and the move towards the smart grid has caused the problem of controlling scattered products in the retail market to be investigated with newer approaches, of which the uncertainty of renewable resources is one of the most important. In this thesis, at first, the problem of control of scattered productions for both winter and summer scenarios is investigated. In the following, the uncertainty of solar energy sources, changes in electric load and electricity price in the retail market are discussed and a smart and flexible exploitation model of resources, loads and electric vehicles is defined. To consider the uncertainties in the problem, the Monte Carlo method is used by sampling the possible distributions of random parameters and the problem is solved for each of these scenarios. The final answer to the problem is the weighted average of the results of these scenarios. Meanwhile, the risk index has been used to evaluate the random problem. A dynamic optimization will be able to implement time-varying resource generation with the presence of renewable resources and electric vehicles in a complex smart grid. Therefore, the particle community optimization algorithm is also used in this project and we show that electric vehicles and the load response program are effective in the operation of the smart grid. Keywords: distributed production, smart microgrid, electric vehicles, uncertainty, particle community optimization algorithm 1.1 Distributed production 1.1.1 History of distributed production In the middle years of the 20th century and before the 1970s, the demand for electrical energy showed a constant growth rate of about 6-7%. Environmental issues and the oil crisis caused by political events in the Middle East in the 1970s are new problems facing the world's electricity industry. These factors, along with changes in the global economy, led to a decrease in the growth rate of electric energy consumption from 6-7% to 1.6-3% in the 1980s. At the same time, energy transmission and distribution costs experienced unprecedented inflation from 25% to about 150% of the production cost. In fact, this part of the electricity industry allocated two-thirds of the necessary budgets for investment. Following the decrease in demand, the excessive increase of the aforementioned costs, public concerns for the health of the environment, the acquisition of advanced technologies and the acceptance of changes in the networks, the huge central power plants were left out of the attention of energy producers. In other words, the pattern of energy production changed from "seeking economic efficiency in dimensions and sizes" to "group and decentralized efficient production". [15] [

    The legal point of view of the public approach to distributed generation started in 1978 with the approval of the "Electrical Grid Adjustment Act[1]" in the United States of America. This decree allowed small generators to be connected to the power grid, and in this way, small scattered production units even with a capacity of one kilowatt entered the competitive market of electric energy production and distribution. [16] [

    Recent advances in small energy production technologies have caused electricity distribution companies to move towards making changes in the network infrastructure in order to increase the coordination of distribution networks with DG units. Also, by using DGs, it is possible to operate effectively in free markets [2], which will bring many benefits. In fact, the use of DGs in distribution systems, especially in areas where centralized production is not possible or there are inefficiencies in the transmission system, is beneficial for both consumers and power companies. 2.1.1 Definition of distributed generation In general, any type of electric energy production technology that has the ability to be integrated into the distribution system or is connected to the grid from the consumer side of the measuring device can be under be called scattered production. DG systems are introduced as modular systems with a capacity of less than 100 megawatts and sometimes less than 10 megawatts. Some countries have provided their definitions based on voltage levels, and others based on other characteristics such as the use of new energy, simultaneous production of heat and electricity, no dispatching, etc.have defined.]17[

    According to the CIRED survey [3], the definition of distributed generation in some countries is as follows:

    England: productions that are connected to the distribution network up to a maximum of 132 kV.

    Italy: productions that are connected to the distribution networks up to a voltage level of 150 kV maximum.

    Germany: In general, productions that are done with new energies. France: productions that are connected to the distribution network or load and their voltage level is in the voltage range of distribution networks. India: renewable energy sources that are connected to the network with a maximum voltage of 11 kV. They do not have a voltage limit either.

    Belgium: productions that are not under the supervision of central and nationwide dispatching.

    More or less similar definitions to the definitions of the above countries have been presented in other countries.

    EPCOR[4] and IEA[5] define distributed generation as follows:

    : EPCOR distributed generation generally refers to Sources of electric energy production with low capacity (between 1 and 50 megawatts) located near the consumer or connected to the distribution network are emitted.

    IEA: distributed generation of an electric energy production unit connected to low voltage levels that is used to supply the load of a consumer or support the distribution network and includes the technologies of motors, small turbines, fuel cells and solar cells.

    Also. According to the definition of reference [18], distributed generation is: any power generation technology that is installed in a place near the consumer or independent power generation that is connected to the power distribution network and includes power generation in different ways, for example, a photovoltaic system and is installed for the benefit of consumers (such as a house or office). It is also suitable for production at the commercial level of the distribution system in the network. The same things are mentioned in almost all reliable sources. Energy production sources with low capacity, the proximity of the consumer to the production site, production using renewable energy sources, productions that are connected to the distribution network with a certain maximum voltage, for example 132 or 150, are among the terms that are mentioned in the definition of most reliable sources.    

    Therefore, the main differences that can be made between traditional electricity generation and distributed generation according to the same definitions are related to the installation location of distributed generation systems, the amount and capacity of their production, and the way of connection and technologies related to connecting them to the grid, which are examined in the following sections.

    3.1.1 Advantages of distributed generation

    The positive effects of DG generally include the following, which are actually technical effects The activity of DG in the network is:

    reducing line losses of power transmission lines

    liberating transmission and distribution capacity

    reducing the current of the main feeder

    improving satisfaction and reliability and efficiency

    correcting the peak of the load curve

    reducing the cost of power equipment

    possibility of using it separately or connected to the network

    improving the voltage profile and Load factor

    Delay or fix the need for system development

    Realization of real privatization by turning big investors into small investors

    Reducing voltage imbalance by directly injecting power to some loads

    Using systems for simultaneous production of power and heat and thus increasing efficiency

    Low installation and commissioning costs

    Reducing polluting gas emissions

    Increasing security for sensitive and important loads

    Low cost of repairs and maintenance of DG units [15,19][

    To achieve the mentioned benefits, DG must be reliable, economical, have the right amount and in the right place.

    Distributed generation technology has been greatly welcomed all over the world for various reasons, among which the following factors can be mentioned:

    DG units are built and operated in the closest places to the consumer, and for this reason, energy transmission and distribution costs are reduced, otherwise these costs will be around 30% of the value of the power delivered to the consumer.

    The latest achievements of the electricity industry have enabled the construction of high-efficiency generating units in a wide range from 10 kW to 15 MW.

  • Contents & References of Controlling scattered products in the retail market with the Monte Carlo method

    List:

    List of titles

    Page

    1 The first chapter of introduction to distributed production and smart microgrid. 1

    1.1 Distributed production 2

    1.1.1 History of distributed production 2

    2.1.1 Definition of distributed production 3

    3.1.1 Benefits of distributed production 5

    4.1.1 Types of distributed production technologies 6

    1.2 Structure of micro network. 13

    1.3 Introduction of microgrid hardware structures. 14

    1.4 Getting to know the basic concepts of the electricity market. 16

    1.4.1 Definitions of keywords. 16

    1.4.2 Types of electricity market models. 18

    2 The second chapter introduction to the topic of the thesis. 20

    2.1 Introduction 21

    2.2 Description of the thesis topic. 23

    2.3 Review of the subject literature. 23

    2.3.1 Comprehensive one-by-one enumeration method: 24

    2.3.2 Priority list method. 24

    3.3.2 Dynamic programming 25

    4.3.2 Lagrange release. 25

    5.3.2 Hierarchical method. 26

    2.3.6 Method of removing from the circuit. 27

    2.3.7 The method of using the genetic algorithm in the problem of controlling scattered productions 27

    2.3.8 The method of anling simulation. 28

    2.3.9 Taboo search method. 28

    2.3.10 Economic load distribution methods 29

    2.4 Review of previous works. 29

    2.5 Thesis structure. 30

    3 The third chapter of problem modeling and formulation. 32

    3.1 Introduction 33

    3.2 Planning of participation of units 33

    3.2.1 Mathematical relationships of participation of units 34

    3.2.2 Limitations of thermal units. 35

    3.2.3 The planning horizon of the units' participation 39

    3.2.4 Checking the objective functions of the problem. 40

    3.3 Considering the uncertainties in the control problem of scattered productions. 42

    3.3.1 Uncertainty model of wind turbine production power. 42

    3.3.2 Uncertainty model of solar cell production power. 44

    3.3.3 Load uncertainty model 45

    3.3.4 Sampling based on the Monte Carlo method. 46

    3.3.5 Reducing the scenario. 47

    3.4 Particle Sourcing Algorithm (PSO) 49

    3.4.1 Problem Solving Strategy with PSO Algorithm. 49

    3.4.2 Primary population. 50

    3.4.3 Initial speed. 50

    3.4.4 Competency assessment. 51

    3.4.5 Updating speed and position. 51

    3.5 Summary. 52

    4 The fourth chapter of simulation and checking the results. 54

    4.1 Introduction 55

    4.2 Results of daily deterministic planning. 61

    4.2.1 Winter scenario. 62

    4.2.2 Summer scenario. 66

    3.4   Results of daily stochastic planning. 68

    4.4 Summary. 69

    5 The fifth chapter, conclusions and suggestions. 72

    5.1 Conclusion. 73

    5.2 Suggestions 74

    Resources and references. 76

    List of Page shapes

    Figure 1?1: Model of a Solar-thermal power plant. 9

    Figure 1-2: Circuit of a photovoltaic system. 11

    Figure 1?3: Electricity generation from wind energy. 12

    Figure 3?1: Probability distribution function of wind speed. 1

    Figure 3-2: Probability distribution function of solar radiation. 44

    Figure 3-3: Sevenfold normal distribution curve of load 45

    Figure 3-4: How to reduce scenarios 47

    Figure 3-5: Scenario reduction flowchart. 48

    Figure 3-6: Updating the velocity and position of a particle 52

    Figure 4-1: The studied microgrid. 55

    Figure 4-2: Predicted PV production power curve for weekday-winter scenario. 58

    Figure 4-3: Projected PJM market price curve for the day-week-winter scenario. 59

    Figure 4-4: The predicted curve of the electric load consumed by the microgrid for the day-week-winter scenario. 59

    Figure 4-5: Predicted curve of PV production power for the day-week-summer scenario. 60

    Figure 4-6: Projected PJM market price curve for the day-week-summer scenario. 60

    Figure 4-7: The predicted curve of the electric load consumed by the microgrid for the day-week-summer scenario. 61

    Figure 4-8: output power of scattered productions during 24 hours. 62

    Figure 4-9: Power exchanged along62

    Figure 4-9: Power exchanged during 24 hours. 64

    Figure 4-10: The final cost according to the capacity of PHEV and the day of use 64

    Figure 4-11: The output power of scattered productions during 24 hours. 66

    Figure 4-12: Power exchanged during 24 hours. 67

    Figure 4-13: Final cost according to PHEV capacity and day used in summer. 67

    Figure 4-14: The amount of risk index for different days. 69

     

    List of tables

    Page

    Table 1?1. Microturbine specifications. 13

    Table 4-1. Different costs of scattered productions 56

    Table 4-2. Economic coefficients of production units. 57

    Table 4-3. Coefficients of emission sources. 57

    Table 4-4. The amount of cost and profit of participating in the load response program 65

     

     

     

    1.1 Dispersed production

    1.1.1 History of distributed production

    From the middle years of the 20th century and before the 1970s, the demand for electrical energy showed a constant growth rate of about 6-7%. Environmental issues and the oil crisis caused by political events in the Middle East in the 1970s are new problems facing the world's electricity industry. These factors, along with changes in the global economy, led to a decrease in the growth rate of electric energy consumption from 6-7% to 1.6-3% in the 1980s. At the same time, energy transmission and distribution costs experienced unprecedented inflation from 25% to about 150% of the production cost.

    Actually, this part of the electricity industry allocated two-thirds of the necessary budgets for investment. Following the decrease in demand, excessive increase in the aforementioned costs, public concerns for the health of the environment, access to advanced technologies and acceptance of changes in the networks, huge central power plants were left out of the attention of energy producers. In other words, the pattern of energy production changed from "seeking economic efficiency in dimensions and sizes" to "group and decentralized efficient production". [15] [

    The legal perspective of the public approach to distributed generation started in 1978 with the approval of the "Power Grid Adjustment Act[1]" in the United States of America. This decree allowed small generators to be connected to the power grid, and in this way, small scattered production units even with a capacity of one kilowatt entered the competitive market of electric energy production and distribution. [16] [

    Recent advances in small energy production technologies have caused electricity distribution companies to move towards making changes in the network infrastructure in order to increase the coordination of distribution networks with DG units. Also, by using DGs, it is possible to operate effectively in free markets [2], which will bring many benefits. In fact, the use of DGs in distribution systems, especially in areas where centralized production is not possible or there are inefficiencies in the transmission system, is beneficial for both consumers and power companies. 2.1.1 Definition of distributed generation In general, any type of electric energy production technology that can be integrated into the distribution system or is connected to the network from the consumer side of the measuring device can be under be called scattered production. DG systems are introduced as modular systems with a capacity of less than 100 megawatts and sometimes less than 10 megawatts. Some countries have provided their definitions based on voltage levels, and others based on other characteristics such as the use of new energy, simultaneous production of heat and electricity, no dispatching, etc. have defined.]17[

    According to the CIRED survey [3], the definition of distributed generation in some countries is as follows:

    England: productions that are connected to the distribution network up to a maximum of 132 kV.

    Italy: productions that are connected to the distribution networks up to a voltage level of 150 kV maximum.

    Germany: In general, it refers to the productions that are done with new energies. France: It is said to the productions that are connected to the distribution or load network and their voltage level is in the voltage categories of the distribution networks. India: Renewable energy sources that are connected to the network with a maximum voltage of 11 kV.

Controlling scattered products in the retail market with the Monte Carlo method